Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space and prospect capital to improve if they want to, and the Sox dont. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. You can see how all the talent on their roster could come together to form a contender, but the specter of their late-season collapse looms large. This year? Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Read the rest of this entry . So what *does* Chicago have to spend? Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. The exercise continues this offseason. Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Some may think. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. The Brewers strength is unquestioned, with the best projected starting rotation in the National League. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. by Retrosheet. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. OK, not really. Thats a trickier question, given the contours of the roster. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. In the. Plenty of their magic from last season seems sustainable even if the projection systems cant recognize it, but it still feels like everything needs to go right, again, if theyre going to be a contender in 2022. Both systems love the Mets, as most models do because, honestly, they look great on paper. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Their entire system is proprietary to their site but as they describe it, its a system that takes a players past performance and tries to project the most likely outcome for the following season. Of course, thats what every projection model attempts to do but all in different ways. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. Starts at 6:30 pm. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves biggest weakness. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. by Retrosheet. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. Looking at the in-season ZiPS projections, roster strength has varied much more in recent years than when I started doing this. by Handedness. tbh I wouldn't give these projections any credit until the offseason finishes. On paper, the White Sox are good enough to be in the second tier, but some spring injury issues have knocked them down a peg. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. No fucking way they are that low next year. When it comes to the Giants, ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Kyle Harrison, which helps to mute some of the loss of Carlos Rodn. I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. If you dont know, FanGraphs uses both the Steamer and ZiPS projection systems for the individual inputs in their model. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. Here's FanGraphs preseason projections in 2018: https://fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta= Notice that are 18 teams <25%. But without their ace, their ceiling is just a bit lower. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. by Handedness, FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2022, A Conversation With Yankees Rookie Right-hander Ron Marinaccio, With Lance Lynn Sidelined, the White Sox Turn to Johnny Cueto. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. With the Giants predicted for an 85-win season by both models, the four-win difference amounts to a massive playoff probability decrease. One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. I remain on the record that I think the Tigers are better than ZiPS thinks, and its nice to see that Detroit isnt going to play games with Spencer Torkelsons playing time. The premium ad-free membership. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. If they can find a few midseason upgrades for their pitching staff, or if Paddack blossoms in his new home, they could make the White Sox sweat down the stretch. The haul of prospects theyre getting back in these trades should form the core of the next great As roster hopefully right around when a new stadium on the Oakland waterfront is opening up. 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